March 5th, 2006 at 18:32 (Oscars, Film)

Tonight’s Academy Awards show is special for two reasons. First, it is being hosted by Jon Stewart, who I’m sure will do a terrific job but may not be appreciated by everyone at an event such as this (just look at David Letterman; I thought he was fine, but it seems that most people thought he sucked). The other reason is that this year, for the first time, I’ve actually made an effort to see as many of the nominated films as possible before the awards are given out. I got nowhere close to seeing all of them of course, but at least I got to see plenty more than I usually do. Many of the films haven’t even reached Sweden yet, and some of them probably won’t ever get a theatrical release here unless they win something big tonight.

Anyway, here are my predictions. The films I’ve seen are written in bold letters.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck

As much as I’d love Joaquin Phoenix to win, I can’t see this Oscar going to anybody but Philip Seymour Hoffman. He’s the one everybody’s talking about. Heath Ledger might have a chance, but only if Brokeback Mountain is having one of those nights.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Judi Dench - Mrs Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

Reese Witherspoon really nailed her role as June Carter, and she’s riding on a wave of success right now. Charlize Theron was good in the otherwise quite lame and occasionally pathetic North Country, but the only real competition to Reese should be Felicity Huffman.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Jake Gyllenhaal can win only if Heath Ledger wins also. William Hurt’s performance cannot have been longer than ten minutes and left no impression on me whatsoever, so I’m going with Matt Dillon. He made an excellent racist asshole. Paul Giamatti is the outsider here, since he was overlooked for Sideways last year, but I’ve never even heard of Cinderella Man.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Amy Adams - Junebug
Cathrine Keener - Capote
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

Again, Michelle Williams could win if the academy has decided for Brokeback Mountain to have one of those nights. I’m rooting for Rachel Weisz, who finally took a role in a decent film and proved she’s a good actress. Frances McDormand obviously got nominated on old merits, as she was hardly noticeable in North Country.

BEST DIRECTING:

Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee
Capote - Bennett Miller
Crash - Paul Haggis
Good Night and Good Luck - George Clooney
Munich - Steven Spielberg

Ang Lee should win this one. Paul Haggis would definitely be a worthy winner, but he’s a newcomer (and old TV writer) not many people have heard of before. Clooney is an outsider. Spielberg has made a Scorsese and has no chance of winning. I’m sure that doesn’t make any sense to anybody but myself, but nevermind.

BEST PICTURE:

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich

This is definitely a battle between Brokeback Mountain and Crash. The latter really deserves some recognition, so I’m hoping that Ang Lee’s directing Oscar (assuming my prediction holds) will open up for Crash to win this one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
Capote - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence - Josh Olson
Munich - Tony Kushner and Eric Roth

Brokeback Mountain, hands down.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Crash - Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco
Good Night and Good Luck - George Clooney and Grant Heslov
Match Point - Woody Allen
The squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan

Tough call as I’ve only seen two, but no matter what a great comeback they say Woody Allen has made, I think Crash just has to win this.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Howl’s Moving Castle
Tim Burton’s The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Wallace & Gromit should be a sure bet here. I have yet to see it, but everybody else loved it. Hayao Miyazaki was awarded for Spirited Away a couple of years ago, but Howl’s Moving Castle is said to not be as good. The Corpse Bride was a charming little film, but little more than that.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Darwin’s Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin

The penguin film seems to be loved by the public, but Murderball has received rave reviews. Since I haven’t seen any of these, I couldn’t care less who wins this one.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Don’t Tell (Italy)
Joyeux Noel (France)
Paradise Now (Palestina)
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)

Paradise Now could win because of the controversy it has caused, but if the voters have actually bothered to see any of these films, I think the Oscar will go to Tsotsi. It’s a great film deserving of a bigger audience, and an Oscar would help it get a wider distribution.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Batman Begins - Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain - Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night and Good Luck - Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha - Dion Beebe
The New World - Emmanuel Lubezki

Probably Brokeback Mountain, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Good Night and Good Luck getting its only Oscar in this category. The photography was probably what I enjoyed the most in that film.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

This is one of those categories where it really doesn’t matter. The effects look great in all of them. So I’ll ‘vote’ with my heart and go with King Kong, since that’s the best film of the bunch.