Finally, the time has come to predict who gets one and who doesn’t. Last year, if I remember correctly, I was right in 10 out of 13 predictions, although I admit to being a bit vague in a couple of those predictions. This time, I’ll discuss 14 categories, but it’s more about personal preference this time than about trying to read the minds of the Academy. This has to do, of course, with the fact that I’ve seen so many of the films myself this year, and paid less attention to what other people say.
Anyway, here are my picks and tips for tonight’s Academy Awards. Films I’ve seen are written in bold letters, my personal pick in each category is marked with asterisks (*), and the nominee I predict will win the Oscar is marked with dollar signs ($).
:: BEST PICTURE ::
$*Babel*$
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
*Little Miss Sunshine*
The Queen
The big surprise for me here was Little Miss Sunshine. I’d be happy to see it win, but the equally deserving Babel is probably a safer bet (I’m cheating here and selecting two personal picks, since I can’t decide which I like better). I haven’t seen Iwo Jima, but I doubt it’ll go all the way, since not many others have seen it either. The Queen is an outsider here, while The Departed better not fucking win. Sorry for being so harsh, but it’s nothing more than a mediocre remake. And how would that make Hollywood look, its best production of the year being a ripoff of a foreign film?
:: BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE ::
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
$*Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland*$
Wow, I’ve actually seen all these. What I don’t understand, though, is why DiCaprio is considered as having a bigger role than Djimon Hounsou, who is nominated in the supporting actor category. I saw Blood Diamond last night and thought DiCaprio was pretty good, but was his Rhodesian accent believable? I couldn’t tell. Nice to see he finally grew up, though. Will Smith was good, but hardly better than Forest Whitaker or Ryan Gosling. One of those two should win this. Probably Whitaker; the Academy loves this type of role. Venus is the most unintentionally creepy film I’ve seen in a long time (a 74-year old man trying to get a 19-year old girl in bed - very tasteful), so Peter O’Toole better not win.
:: BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE ::
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
$*Helen Mirren, The Queen*$
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Helen Mirren, hands down. Winslet was great too, but in a pretty boring film. Cruz wasn’t as annoying as she usually is, but still not Oscar-worthy. Meryl Streep shouldn’t even be in this category. Don’t get me wrong, she was solid, but despite being the devil of the title, she was not the main character of that film.
:: BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ::
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
*Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond*
$Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls$
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Djimon Hounsou is my favourite here. He was very believable in a strong part. Murphy seems to be the critics’ favourite, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins, since the Academy has always had a thing for crappy musicals. All the others were good, but had quite small roles.
:: BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ::
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
$Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls$
*Rinko Kikuchi, Babel*
Again, the musical performance seems to be the favourite. I’d go with Rinko Kikuchi, though. She was so believable as a deaf girl that some professional critics actually thought she was deaf herself, and I think that says something about her performance.
:: BEST DIRECTING ::
*Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel*
$Martin Scorsese, The Departed$
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Is this going to be the year Scorsese finally gets his Oscar? Many people think so, but as much as I think he deserves one for some of his earlier work, I cannot support awarding him for the mediocre remake which is The Departed. Eastwood is always popular with the Academy, but I doubt they’ll feel right about awarding him for the third time in only a few years, especially if it means snubbing Scorsese once again. Personally, I’ll be rooting for Inarritu.
:: BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM ::
After the Wedding (Efter Bryllupet), Denmark
Days of Glory (Indigènes), Algeria
The Lives of Others (Das Leben der Anderen), Germany
$*Pan’s Labyrinth (El Laberinto del Fauno), Mexico*$
Water, Canada
My favourite category. I like all these that I’ve seen, but Pan’s Labyrinth is one of a kind. It brought even some the most reluctant English-only speakers to the cinema to see a foreign film, and that’s quite something. The Lives of Others and Indigènes were great too.
:: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ::
Borat - Cultural Learnings… - Sacha Baron Cohen et al
*Children of Men - Alfonso Cuaron et al*
$The Departed - William Monahan$
Little Children - Todd Field and Tom Perrotta
Notes on a Scandal - Patrick Marber
Little Children probably looked good on paper, but the finished product was something of a bore. Children of Men would be a deserving winner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if The Departed takes this one. I don’t like at all how they dumbed down the original story for this script, but that’s just me. All I can say about Borat is, WTF?
:: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ::
$Babel - Guillermo Arriaga$
Letters From Iwo Jima - Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis
Little Miss Sunshine - Michael Arndt
*Pan’s Labyrinth - Guillermo del Toro*
The Queen - Peter Morgan
Very strong group of nominees here. I’d go with Pan’s Labyrinth, but Babel would work as well. Any of these could win, but my bet is that it stands between Babel and The Queen.
:: BEST ANIMATED FEATURE ::
Cars
$Happy Feet$
*Monster House*
It seems that everybody loved Happy Feet, but I found it a bore. I’d go with Monster House, but doubt that it’ll win.
:: BEST ART DIRECTION ::
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
$*Pan’s Labyrinth*$
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
The Prestige
Pan’s Labyrinth, I hope. Although, this is one of those categories in which musicals usually do well, so I’ll be prepared for the worst.
:: BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY ::
The Black Dahlia
$*Children of Men*$
The Illusionist
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Prestige
In case you didn’t know, I’m one of those few people who actually care about this category. In Children of Men, there’s a great long scene which looks like it was shot in one single take. Some blood spatter remaining on the lense for quite a while works to reinforce this feeling, but I have no way of telling whether or not it was really so. In any case, the camera work really adds to the general feeling of that film, and would be a worthy winner. So would Pan’s Labyrinth. The Prestige was pretty good in this sense, as well, but the others had something out of the ordinary, and were far more interesting films. I would have loved to see a nomination for Little Miss Sunshine too, though.
:: BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE ::
Deliver Us From Evil
$An Inconvenient Truth$
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
I still haven’t got around to seeing Al Gore’s film, which will probably win this. To be honest, I don’t think there’s much for me to learn from it, since I’ve been aware of these issues for many years already. I’ll make sure to see it some day though, as I hear it’s a great production. I know I’m far from being the first to say this, but it would be kinda cool if he’d announce his presidential candidacy for 2008 during his acceptance speech. Jesus Camp was well-made and incredibly disturbing, but I doubt it has a chance against Gore.
:: BEST VISUAL EFFECTS ::
*Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest*
$Poseidon$
Superman Returns
Quite a weak group of nominees this year, isn’t it? No real “wow”-moments in any of these films. Everything has been done before. I guess I’d pick Pirates. Poseidon just felt like Titanic all over again. Anything could win this.
That’s it! Check back tomorrow for comments and rants of disappointment over my favourites being snubbed. 
